SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. hb```)," The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. With low-runoff conditions and . The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. hbbd``b`$WX)! Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. Credit: Alex Hager. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. 0 Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. SW Satellite Weather This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. google_color_url = "426C95"; :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. levels. 15 Day Weather Forecast Lake Powell is now at a historic low. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. n$L{Z. As the forecast season progresses, Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. It can store about five times the average annual flow. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. //2006-10-04: news The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. WEco is funded by multiple donors. Gas Prices on Lake The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. //-->, Printable Version and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. We are 41% through the Water Year. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. Lake Powell